A global shortage of mobile memory chips could make Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro and rumored iPhone Ultra harder to find when they launch in September, according to semiconductor analyst Tim Culpan.
Culpan says roughly $1 billion worth of Apple processors are sitting idle at TSMC because the DRAM needed to complete advanced packaging hasn’t arrived.
Apple relies on Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung for memory. All three suppliers are facing growing demand from AI infrastructure companies, which are consuming a larger share of global DRAM production.
Apple has already acknowledged the pressure. During its July 30 earnings call, CEO Tim Cook said the company was facing “very significant constraints currently, with limited flexibility in the supply chain.”
Expect the Pro models to sell out faster
Apple and its manufacturing partners believe they’ll have enough inventory for launch day, but supply could tighten quickly once preorders begin.
People familiar with the situation told Culpan that online delivery estimates may slip sooner than usual, while retail inventory could disappear faster than in previous launches.
The shortage is already affecting other parts of Apple’s business. The company has shifted customers toward the MacBook Pro as MacBook Air supply tightens, while higher memory costs have contributed to price increases across parts of the lineup.
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The foldable model faces the biggest risk
Apple’s rumored iPhone Ultra is expected to start above $2,000, making it the most expensive iPhone the company has ever sold.
Culpan says Apple plans to produce about 200 million iPhone 18 devices over the lineup’s lifetime. The foldable model is expected to account for less than 10% of that total, making it especially vulnerable if component shortages persist.
The issue isn’t chip production itself. The A20 Pro, Apple’s first processor built on TSMC’s N2 process, is reportedly achieving healthy yields.
Instead, the bottleneck comes after fabrication. Without enough DRAM, completed processors can’t move into advanced packaging, leaving chips waiting while the time available for final assembly at Foxconn and BYD continues to shrink.
Even if Apple secures additional memory before launch, the compressed production schedule could leave little room to rebuild inventory before the first wave of demand arrives.
